Friday, 9 June 2017

The end of May. And now?

I am become death - portrait of Theresa May by
Stewart Bremner
There was no possible good outcome from this general election; the outcome we've got is far from the worst we could have had. But it's time for the left in Scotland in general - and myself in particular - to reassess, and work out how we go forward.

First, let's be clear. For me at least, independence for Scotland is not an end in itself: it's a means towards achieving a more just, more equal and more peaceful world. If other means would achieve the same end more quickly or more certainly, independence would become much less important.

Secondly, independence is not the key political issue of our age. The key political issue of our age is ecocide - by which I mean global warming, certainly, but also all the other insults to the planet: our use of poisons; our dumping of waste into the oceans; our manufacture and use of non-biodegradable materials; our unsustainable depletion of topsoil; our deforestation; our destruction of biodiversity. These, together - our destruction of the biosphere of the planet on which we live - is the key political issue of our time.

An independent Scotland in an uninhabitable world is not a win.

But secondly, independence isn't even the second most important issue of our time. Injustice is by far more important; the arms trade, which is tightly bound up with injustice, is a more important issue. An unjust world can never be a peaceful world; an unjust nation can never be a happy nation. We must radically redistribute both wealth and real power at all levels - locally, nationally and across the world.

An independent Scotland in which six hunner own half the land is not a win.
Noo Scotland's free! Watch in amaze
The Queen still in her palace stays
Across the sky the rockets blaze
The bankers gang their greedy ways
An ilka working karl still pays
Tae line the pokes o lairds who laze
On Cote d'Azure, Bahama keys
It's time tae rise as levellers again
So where are we now?

My take on it is (in Scotland) this is Corbyn's win and Corbyn's alone. He outflanked the SNP on the left, where elections, in Scotland, are won. But of course he also outflanks Scottish Labour on the left; we've elected MPs who are unlikely to be loyal to him. And if Labour don't now unite behind Corbyn, there is no silver lining from this night.

The SNP must offer Corbyn solid support, but must require from him an acceptance of at least direct Scottish representation in the EU negotiations, and a commitment to the single market. However, unless Sinn Fein come to Westminster, the game's pretty much a bogey. Neither Labour nor Tories can really govern.

Will Sinn Fein take their seats? I hae my doubts. It's critically in their interest - in the interest of the whole island of Ireland - for them  to take them. A Tory/Unionist coalition will damage Ireland north and south, and will set back the possibility of unity a long way. A hard border across Ireland would be a very, very bad thing.

If Sinn Fein take their seats then a progressive majority at Westminster is possible. If there is a progressive majority at Westminster, there will be a much softer (and, frankly, an enormously more competent) Brexit negotiation; and consequently, there will be no hard border in Ireland. Against this is the republicans' strong and principled stance of not taking an oath of loyalty to the Queen. I agree with their stance. In a democracy, taking an oath of loyalty to a monarch is an anathema. And as I wrote just this week, we do have to stop making compromises with things we know to be evil.

So I don't know which way Sinn Fein will jump. If they go to Westminster, a progressive alliance is (just) possible, but it would be very difficult.

A Tory/Unionist government is more likely. If Sinn Fein don't take their seats, it's a racing certainty. This is better than a Tory landslide, but not much better; it makes the Brexit negotiations more or less impossible. There is no settled will of the British people on Europe; the Brexit referendum was won on a slender majority of a low-turnout poll.

There are two ways forward for the Scottish left from this: one is to get behind Corbyn and try to build socialism in Britain. I have no faith in that being possible. I have no faith in the ability of Labour to unite behind the left. Blairites are too ambitious.

The alternative is for us to make a stronger push for independence, either by pushing the SNP left or else by working outside parliamentary politics to build pressure in the country. That's my preference but I've not much confidence.

The SNP lost this election. Yes, I know that in absolute terms they won; yes, I know that First Past the Post hugely magnifies small swings. But a setback of this magnitude stands as a relative loss; and they deserved to lose. They neither tried to make a case for independence, nor adequately defended their considerable achievements in office. They offered no clear radical programme. Triangulating to a mythical centre ground will not work: there is no majority in the centre. The majority for independence - if it can be gathered - is on the left.

Of course, the SNP faced a relentlessly hostile media, including the BBC, who deliberately conflated devolved with reserved issues and generally muddied the water. But that does not detract from the key point that the SNP did not offer a clear, radical vision that Scotland could unite behind.

I continue to believe that a press owned by an offshore cartel is a significant problem. First Past the Post is obviously a problem.  It's hard to believe, though, that Westminster will ever be able to resolve either of these. A political class running scared of an over-mighty media lack the courage to rein it in; a political establishment elected on First Past the Post are not motivated to reform it.

Sclerotic Westminster, with all its archaic and anti-democratic 'traditions', remains the central problem. We have to get rid of it.
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